This article is excerpted from FEEDSTRATEGY

The pandemic has presented challenges all along the food value chain, but industries have found ways to minimize risks

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused changes all along the food supply chain, from the feed mill to poultry production and consumption.

Poultry economist Dr. Paul Aho said Wednesday during the webinar, “How COVID-19 is changing poultry production & supply chain,” that he expects worldwide meat consumption to drop as incomes fall during the recession driven by the pandemic.

“There tends to be a good correlation between income and meat consumption. Because meat is, after all, is a luxury for most of the world,” he said.

In 2019, average per capita chicken consumption was 12.1 kg. This is expected to fall to 11.6 kg in 2021.

“I would be shocked if meat use did not also drop as it has” in past recessions, he said. “I would predict a drop in per capita meat use over the period of this pandemic. And when the pandemic is over, I would expect a sharp rebound both in income and total meat use.”

However, Aho said that the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the effects African swine fever (ASF), have allowed chicken to “quietly become the king of meats” in the world, surpassing pork for the first time.

“With African swine fever and COVID-19, pork production has come down considerably … but chicken has surpassed, or will surpass, pork this calendar year to become the king of meats,” he said, adding that he expects this to continue in coming years.